Speculating On Content

September 14, 2010 at 5:42 pm | Posted in Guild Wars 2, mmorpg | 13 Comments
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I’ve seen a bit of talk about endgame in Guild Wars 2 lately and it got me thinking and mostly speculating.

Of course anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that there are going to be dungeons, and anyone who has played Guild Wars likely knows PvP is also a contender for endgame content.

Another thing I picked up from the GDC dynamic events panel video was that they’ll have a few zones aimed at level 80 characters.

Just a few?

In Guild Wars the vast majority of content is aimed at max level. Unless we’re talking about scaling down to revisit lower level content (which they’ve also said is possible endgame content) that is not a lot of difficult content for end game players.

Arenanet have also said that they don’t need you to repeat dungeons or content endlessly to get the perfect gear piece you’re after. 5 or 6 times should suffice.

Doesn’t seem like a lot of content.

However. I do remember them quoting around 1500-1600 dynamic events.

So I started to look at some of the maps collected from Arenanet presentations, most of which you can view at the World Map thread over at Guild Wars 2 Guru forums. There are 4 or 5 maps you can look at that are divided into green outlined sections, or otherwise suggest a number of events. I haven’t seen whether this has been confirmed or not but it seems likely. One specific map, below, definitely refers to events. Words like “Attack” or “Hold” are paired together often.

A compilation of various maps taken from the game or convention panels

Without getting too much into my reasoning (some zones seem to have less than 30 and at least one zone seems to have more) as this is just speculation lets say there are around 30 events per zone. One dev gave the example of one event chain having 20 events, so I don’t think this is unreasonable.

Lets take 1500 and divide it by 30 to get 50.

50 zones?

If there are a few zones aimed at level 80 content can we assume there are a few zones aimed at, for instance, 70 to 80? The 60-70 zone (northern charr area) isn’t anywhere near the 50-60 zone (Timberline Falls).

Let’s take that a bit further. Since most games that have multiple races have a starting area and then join a common path where all races play, lets assume there’s a couple zones for low levels and then around level 20 you join a common path.

Why 20? Well they’ve said you receive your final major character system, the traits, at level 16. A couple levels to get used to them, and it seems like maybe its an appropriate time to spring forth on the wide world. Let’s guess 2 zones per starting area, 5 races, so 10 zones.

Add that to a very general sense of one zone per 10 levels (some of the maps during presentation have been marked as aimed at 60-70 or 35-45) and combine that with 3 zones for each bracket of leveling (so like, 3 zones for 60-70 content) and we’re getting somewhere.

All that guessing adds up to 7 content brackets (20-30, 70-80, etc. + max 80 content) each with 3 zones, plus the starter areas (5 zones 1-10, 5 zones 10-20), adds up to about 31. Far short of my earlier guess of 50. That’s only like 900 events.

Do Dynamic Events take place in instances? That’s one possibility. They’ve said their dungeons have a unique feature to make them re-playable. I find it Likely that these are some form of events. Is it possible though, that there are around 20 endgame dungeons? Probably not. Although it is possible that there are that many mid-game and endgame dungeons. Guild Wars often had around 20 or so missions or dungeons with each campaign.

Do Dynamic Events take place in Personal Story? I don’t think so. Those seem quite linear. Things take place there that don’t change.

Of course while doing all this I did go off into even crazier territory, which I am prone to do. What if each race has content from 1 to 80. Break the levels up into groups of 10. 8 level brackets, plus 5 level 80 zones, 9×5=45 (I did that math for you, you’re welcome) and that is a lot closer to the original 50 zones I was talking about.

Unfortunately they’d have to be insane to make 5 versions of the same leveling content. I mean how many employees would that take. It would just be so insanely inefficient wouldn’t it? I could make arguments back and forth but that’s a whole other post.

Besides, 30 events per zone is just a guess. Maybe there’s 20 or 40. Maybe you leave your starting area at level 30 or 40? Maybe dungeons don’t have events at all? Plenty of obvious problems with all of this. I did think it was interesting to start playing with numbers, which is why I wrote the post.

It was actually quite a hard post to write without rambling too much and seeming crazy. I’ve had 3 different people link to this blog on foreign forums suggesting you put on a tinfoil hat before coming here (oh yeah, I read that! thanks.) even when the posts in question are peppered with mentions that this is only speculation.

Anyway. I’m wondering if anybody thinks I’m on to something or way off. Has anyone else come to similar conclusions? Far different ones?

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13 Comments

  1. so much math! lol

    i’m curious how they’ll fit so many dynamic events into the game world; b/c prior mmos had usually a few different quests occupying the same area. I don’t think dynamic events will overlap in gw2. If it doesn’t overlap, i’d imagine every open space would have an event or different events in the same spot, triggered by different things

    • I’m sure you’re right, we’ll see a big mix of events on top of one another, leading into one another, or completely seperated. some will be big, some will be small.

      from the demo it doesn’t look like they crowd each other but it looks like some run up against one another.

  2. Also, some event chains cross zones. I’m pretty sure that starting cities wouldn’t have the same events. After all, there is no Shaemoor in the non-human zones, there probably wouldn’t be centaurs, and the kinds of things that a particular race would consider heroic or a good start to your career would definitely be different between races.

    Maybe the Sylvari starting Event is kicking over a beehive to see what happens. XD

    • Oh yeah I’m sure there are all kinds of caveats, i was just trying to simplify and speak generally. I’m sure there are similar amounts of content in starting areas though. They’re not going to have shaemoor packed with events and arbor bay empty with no events.

  3. Hunter,

    IMHO, the solution to the problem is at this:
    “One specific map, below, definitely refers to events. Words like “Attack” or “Hold” are paired together often.”

    That are TWO diferent events at each area. One event the players defend the place. The alternate event the players need conquer the area.

    For me it is easy to see that the players will need “conquer” the territories for estabilize the events. If they conquer one area, they need conquer the adjacent areas or the mobs there will attack the conquered area (now under a defend event) until they conquer it.

    Evidently, the devs can add more variables to this binary model. They can make the events for change the mobs attacking, they can make events for defend caravans that go to the new conquered terriories, so goes.

    But a binary system (defend and conquer events) can put that 900 events you calculated at 1800 events.

    PS
    Sorry the bad english, my native language is portuguese.

    PS2
    Remember too that now, with the game being developed, they say they have 1500-1600 events. But they are adding more events, we can say so from the apresentation they done at PAX. My guess is that at launch we will see maybe 3000 – 4000 events. And I too think they will add events not only for adventurers, but for crafters too. Or diplomacy. They have a very maleable system.

    • that is something I had considered but I hadn’t thought it out as much as you. that could very well be the solution here, but, it also seems contrary to the way events have been described overall.

      usually in context they describe one event as having several different possibilities, not multiple events in the same spot.

      but you could be right.

      • You can see teh event pannel at http://gdcvault.com/play/1013691/Designing-Guild-Wars-2-Dynamic

        They show how the events will chain. Froma what I saw, we can think same place can have diferent events, based at diferent causes. IMHO, they can use two basic events (like “conquer” versus “defend”) and add more complexity for the same place have a razoable number (maybe 5 or more) of disponible events. Take note that these events don’t are timed, they are answers and consequences from players actions.

        I too can see how they can add crafting and diplomacy to these chain events. For example, an event can be build a fortress at a place, so the players need gather materials (stone, wood) and after teh fortress is built ther eis other event where the players need craft weapons and armor for the guards will mantain the fortress. As I said, the event system they are developing is a lot maleable and we can really see a DYNAMIC world.

        • yes i’ve seen that video and i dont dispute that they chain, i mentioned it a few times in the post, i’m just saying i saw attack and hold as 2 halves of one event.

  4. So Massively just put up images from the Dynamic Events panel – http://www.massively.com/photos/guild-wars-2-dynamic-events-panel-images/

    They include three different zones with the names of all the events listed – so we can see that there are about 60 events per zone in each case.

    • nice of them to post weeks later, after i post my blog 😦 or around the same time anyway

      • While the timing sucked for you, I did like that your post provided some context for what the new info could mean as soon as I got it.

        Thinking about it more, these areas have around 60 events, but there also the ones that were presented to the audience to design new events in – so it seems possible they plan on more events for all of them.

        • yeah true. I think I was one the right track, if somewhat way off. I’ll have another post up to correct it soon hopefully.

          1500 is just a base number too. when they quoted it, they said 1500 to 1600 events. by now who knows, maybe they have more than that.

  5. […] [Hunters Insight] Speculating On Content […]


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