The Success of Guild Wars 2

July 7, 2010 at 10:21 am | Posted in Guild Wars, Guild Wars 2, mmorpg | 8 Comments
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Eran, a commenter here at the blog, wonders if Guild Wars 2 will be more successful than the original. It’s a fair question and one that’s hard to answer.

Guild Wars is incredibly successful. According to press releases, being released in April 2005, it had sold 3 million copies, including the 2nd campaign Factions, and the 3rd campaign Nightfall, by December 2006. By the following summer in 2007, it had sold another million copies, just before Eye of the North released. Not 6 months later Eye of the North pushed sales to 5 million by February of 2008. In April 2009 it was announced 6 million copies had been sold.

Sounds like we’re almost due for an announcement about 7 million.

There are a few caveats of course. That is not quite 6 million individual people. For instance a loyal fan is likely to buy four copies, one of each campaign. Plus there are people who bought multiple cheap copies simply to add character slots to their account. There are of course people who bought one campaign and never returned.

There is the question of money as well. Its likely that the Prophecies campaign wasn’t selling at full price as soon as the Factions campaign went on sale. However I don’t doubt that the money made off Guild Wars was enough to fully fund Guild Wars 2.

Let’s assume only about 4 million copies have sold at full price, that’s still around 200 million dollars. Factor in the retail share, operating costs, whatever else, you’ve still got yourself a hefty chunk of change to work with.

Does that translate to a success for the sequel? Of course not.

But att the very least you’ve still got well over a million loyal fans.

One of the more fantastic pieces of concept art

I’m sure some were turned off the by the original and therefore won’t try the sequel. Yet it’s also true that the sequel is different enough, and interesting enough to appeal even to those who didn’t like Guild Wars.

I think the main factor in determining whether it will be more successful than Guild Wars is whether or not it’s a good game. I know, I’m crazy, a real wild card over here.

There’s no way to measure whether it’s a good game until people get their hands on it, but I’m more than willing to wait.

Finally, just to placate Eran, check out this poll and keep in mind that if Guild Wars 2 is going to be more successful than Guild Wars, it’s going to have to be really damn successful.

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8 Comments

  1. Heck Yes!
    (oh, and thanks)

    • I’m actually kind of shocked that 17 people have voted on this already.

  2. After completing the original Guild Wars Prophecies, then Factions, Nightfall and Eye of the North with one of each character class I can only hope that Guild Wars 2 will give me as much if not more pleasure. On the limited information so far available I’m very optimistic 🙂

    • yeah I don’t think theres much room for negativity yet, everything we’ve seen so far seems to be very well thought out and designed.

  3. I lol’d at the wildcard comment. Sarcasm! You get me every time.

    Seriously though, I think GuildWars2 will actually start off pretty strong, but it unlike other new MMO’s, the strength will build. That’s my guess. Initial release figures will be strong, but the momentum better.

    I attribute this to word of mouth and Blizzard screwing up hard core with this RealID crap, running people off.

    • you might be right. surely the business model is the main reason the game sales have just kept going.

      I’m not expecting the realID to turn people off unless they keep pushing it, especially beyond the forums and the friends system.

  4. I think that the game will be better because now ArenaNet has more money and expiriance.

    • true that. they can just skip over a lot of the mistakes they made. and possibly make new ones?


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